Friday, June 29, 2012

Quickie Problem

Suppose you're on a game show and you're given the choice of three doors (and will win what is behind the chosen door). Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. The car and the goats were placed randomly behind the doors before the show. The rules of the game show are as follows: After you have chosen a door, the door remains closed for the time being. The game show host, who knows what is behind the doors, now has to open one of the two remaining doors, and the door he opens must have a goat behind it. If both remaining doors have goats behind them, he chooses one at random. After the host opens a door with a goat, he will ask you to decide whether you want to stay with your first choice or to switch to the last remaining door. Imagine that you chose Door 1 and the host opens Door 3, which has a goat. He then asks you "Do you want to switch to Door Number 2?" Is it to your advantage to change your choice?

Please spend some time to think about the problem and try not to google the solution; feel free to discuss in the comments section. I will post the solution next week. Have a great weekend everyone!

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